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Phenology refers to the seasonal timing patterns commonly exhibited by life on Earth, from blooming flowers to breeding birds to human agriculture. Climate change is altering abiotic seasonality (e.g., longer summers) and in turn, phenological patterns contained within. However, how phenology should evolve is still an unsolved problem. This problem lies at the crux of predicting future phenological changes that will likely have substantial ecosystem consequences, and more fundamentally, of understanding an undeniably global phenomenon. Most studies have associated proximate environmental variables with phenological responses in case-specific ways, making it difficult to contextualize observations within a general evolutionary framework. We outline the complex but universal ways in which seasonal timing maps onto evolutionary fitness. We borrow lessons from life history theory and evolutionary demography that have benefited from a first principles-based theoretical scaffold. Lastly, we identify key questions for theorists and empiricists to help advance our general understanding of phenology. 

Vast amounts of organic carbon are stored in Arctic soils. Much of this is in the form of peat, a layer of decomposing plant matter. Arctic wildfires release this carbon to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) ( 1 ) and contribute to global warming. This creates a feedback loop in which accelerated Arctic warming ( 2 ) dries peatland soils, which increases the likelihood of bigger, more frequent wildfires in the Arctic and releases more CO 2 , which further contributes to warming. Although this feedback mechanism is qualitatively understood, there remain uncertainties about its details. On page 532 of this issue, Descals et al. ( 3 ) analyze data from the 2019 and 2020 wildfire seasons in the Siberian Arctic and predict the extent of carbon-rich soils likely to burn in the area with future warming. Critically, they suggest that even minor increases in temperature above certain thresholds may promote increasingly larger wildfires. 

Ecological rarity, characterized by low abundance or limited distribution, is typical of most species, yet our understanding of what factors contribute to the persistence of rare species remains limited. Consequently, little is also known about whether rare species might respond differently than common species to direct (e.g., abiotic) and indirect (e.g., biotic) effects of climate change. We investigated the effects of warming and exclusion of large herbivores on 14 tundra taxa, three of which were common and 11 of which were rare, at an inland, low-arctic study site near Kangerlussuaq, Greenland. Across all taxa, pooled commonness was reduced by experimental warming, and more strongly under herbivore exclusion than under herbivory. However, taxon-specific analyses revealed that although warming elicited variable effects on commonness, herbivore exclusion disproportionately reduced the commonness of rare taxa. Over the 15-year duration of the experiment, we also observed trends in commonness and rarity under all treatments through time. Sitewide commonness increased for two common taxa, the deciduous shrubsBetula nanaandSalix glauca, and declined in six other taxa, all of which were rare. Rates of increase or decline in commonness (i.e., temporal trends over the duration of the experiment) were strongly related to baseline commonness of taxa early in the experiment under all treatments except warming with grazing. Hence, commonness itself may be a strong predictor of species’ responses to climate change in the arctic tundra biome, but large herbivores may mediate such responses in rare taxa, perhaps facilitating their persistence.

 

Abstract Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra. 

Over the past decade, the Arctic has warmed by 0.75°C, far outpacing the global average, while Antarctic temperatures have remained comparatively stable. As Earth approaches 2°C warming, the Arctic and Antarctic may reach 4°C and 2°C mean annual warming, and 7°C and 3°C winter warming, respectively. Expected consequences of increased Arctic warming include ongoing loss of land and sea ice, threats to wildlife and traditional human livelihoods, increased methane emissions, and extreme weather at lower latitudes. With low biodiversity, Antarctic ecosystems may be vulnerable to state shifts and species invasions. Land ice loss in both regions will contribute substantially to global sea level rise, with up to 3 m rise possible if certain thresholds are crossed. Mitigation efforts can slow or reduce warming, but without them northern high latitude warming may accelerate in the next two to four decades. International cooperation will be crucial to foreseeing and adapting to expected changes. 

Observations of changes in phenology have provided some of the strongest signals of the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), initiated in the early 1990s, established a common protocol to measure plant phenology in tundra study areas across the globe. Today, this valuable collection of phenology measurements depicts the responses of plants at the colder extremes of our planet to experimental and ambient changes in temperature over the past decades. The database contains 150,434 phenology observations of 278 plant species taken at 28 study areas for periods of 1 to 26 years. Here we describe the full dataset to increase the visibility and use of these data in global analyses, and to invite phenology data contributions from underrepresented tundra locations. Portions of this tundra phenology database have been used in three recent syntheses, some datasets are expanded, others are from entirely new study areas, and the entirety of these data are now available at the Polar Data Catalogue (https://doi.org/10.21963/13215). 

Prediction of high latitude response to climate change is hampered by poor understanding of the role of nonlinear changes in ecosystem forcing and response. While the effects of nonlinear climate change are often delayed or dampened by internal ecosystem dynamics, recent warming events in the Arctic have driven rapid environmental response, raising questions of how terrestrial and freshwater systems in this region may shift in response to abrupt climate change. We quantified environmental responses to recent abrupt climate change in West Greenland using long-term monitoring and paleoecological reconstructions. Using >40 years of weather data, we found that after 1994, mean June air temperatures shifted 2.2 °C higher and mean winter precipitation doubled from 21 to 40 mm; since 2006, mean July air temperatures shifted 1.1 °C higher. Nonlinear environmental responses occurred with or shortly after these abrupt climate shifts, including increasing ice sheet discharge, increasing dust, advancing plant phenology, and in lakes, earlier ice out and greater diversity of algal functional traits. Our analyses reveal rapid environmental responses to nonlinear climate shifts, underscoring the highly responsive nature of Arctic ecosystems to abrupt transitions.